As we approach the middle of the NFL season, many interesting battles loom on the horizon with details that can help us against the spread. For example, take a look at the wild and wacky NFC South division. Currently, 3 of the 4 teams are tied for first place with 5-2 records: Panthers, Falcons, and Bucs.
Naturally, some of these teams will be watching the score for the next few weeks, hoping to outdo the other. When you think of those teams, defense comes to mind. They all play an aggressive and physical ‘D’. In fact, there won’t be as much of a first-place jam on Sunday night as the Panthers and Bucs meet in Tampa. Expect a defensive game, of course, with a lot on the line, and note that Tampa Bay is 6-1 “under” total this season. Starting kid QB Chris Simms also doesn’t help having a balanced offense, so he’ll have to grow quickly, or Tampa will compete with defense and a powerful running game, all of which often combine for low-scoring games. . .
Last week, the 49ers stacked the line with 7-8 men to stop the run and force Simms to pass. couldn’t A year ago, Tampa Bay was 11-5 “under” overall and lost both times to the Panthers. Carolina won 21-14 at home (went under) and 37-20 at Tampa Bay (went over).
The other dogfighting division is the NFC East, where EVERY team has a winning record. The Giants did it this weekend with a game in San Francisco, while the Cowboys can sit back on their bye week and watch everyone else battle it out. The big game in the division is Sunday night, when the Redskins host the battered Eagles. Washington has been a beast at home, going 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS allowing just 13.7 points per game.
The Redskins are also out of an embarrassing division loss in New York, as they were blown out 36-0. They had trouble stopping the race, but took a break this Sunday as the Eagles can’t (or, more specifically, don’t want to) run. It was interesting that Washington’s new WR David Patten complained this week about not getting enough football. Patten called it “extremely frustrating, especially when you know you were hired to make plays and make things happen.” Message to Patten: You were never the standout or best receiver in New England (David Givens, Troy Brown and Deion Branch were all better).
Speaking of which, Monday night’s big battle is going to be a riveting one, with the best team in the NFL heading east to take on their old nemesis in Foxborough. Look for the Patriots to run the ball down the Colts’ small line, something the Rams and even the Texans have done successfully in the past two games. RB Corey Dillon rushed for 144 yards when they last met in January. However, Dillon is not 100% as he has ankle pain. The only reason he was used so much against Buffalo last week was Patrick Pass’ hamstring injury. And if New England’s secondary is as bad as it has been most of the season, then Peyton Manning is in for a big night. He can exorcise those demons himself!
The Colts have won just two of 12 meetings with New England since quarterback Peyton Manning took control of the offense in 1998 (and none against Tom Brady). They are minus-23 in the takeaway battle. Turnovers will probably make the difference on Monday. The Patriots have been very poor at forcing turnovers this season, although they did manage two in the last game against Buffalo when Tedy Bruschi returned. All in all, it should be a fun soccer weekend! Good luck, as always… To McMordie.